November – Population Growth and/or Migration – Affeldt
Discussion of the impact of Population Growth on wicked problems such as shortages of food, habitable land, energy and raw materials and the impact on massive migration.
November – Population Growth and/or Migration – Affeldt
Discussion of the impact of Population Growth on wicked problems such as shortages of food, habitable land, energy and raw materials and the impact on massive migration.
A fascinating take on the plight of the Global South (or perhaps, more accurately, equatorial regions.
Why Warm Countries Are Poorer – The most underrated factor by Tomas Pueyo
“Societies that live closer to the equator are warmer. Why are they also poorer?”
https://tomaspueyo.medium.com/why-warm-countries-are-poorer-933e28e6427d
Endless debates “focus on blame rather than on analyzing the root cause that we can do something about.
If it’s true that mountains have had such a major impact on poor countries’ poverty, that clearly points at a path for their development:
— In low-lying areas: Populate them with more AC and focus on eradicating diseases, especially via the elimination of mosquitoes and stagnant water.
AC has been a crucial tool to develop the US South, and AC is the first thing Lee Kwan Yew implemented when he founded Singapore.
–In mountainous areas: Invest heavily in transportation infrastructure.”
The pattern, and its logic, is unmistakable:
–Humans evolved in the African highlands, where temperatures are stable throughout the year, and close to that of spring & fall in temperate regions. This is why we feel most comfortable there.
–Close to the equator, if we’re not in the mountains, the temperatures are too high for us. We can’t think or work properly because we overheat, and our sweat can’t cool us off because humidity is too high.
–We also suffer from many more diseases, more common in hot moist climates, but also because we didn’t evolve there.
–This also affects food, as agriculture is much harder in these hot moist climates, given the pests, the speed of rot, and the work required by crops.
–This prevented maladapted Westerners from efficiently transferring culture and institutions to these hot, humid, low-lying areas, yet another way these regions suffered.
–In order to avoid all that, people close to the equator tend to live higher up, in mountains, where temperatures are cooler and the dew point is lower, allowing people to cool down with sweat when necessary.
–The big tradeoff for this comfort though has been much higher transportation costs, so less trade, so less wealth.
–This also leads to much more ethnic diversity.
–This diversity breeds conflict, which makes everybody poorer.
–Ethnic diversity and conflict also mean institutions are much harder to make and keep.
–This is how mountains are the most significant underdiscussed topic in economic development, and how they must be considered to better explain why warmer countries are poorer.”
In North America and Northern continental Europe, there are huge areas of temperate, fertile land crossed by navigable rivers, so humans have food, transportation and less disease. The Amazon and the Congo Rivers, while navigable, are not conducive to agriculture or comfortable living, so indigenous civilizations, like the Inca, inhabited the mountains. This is consistent with Jarod Diamond’s Germs and Agriculture theories.
As Lee Kwan Yew said about Singapore: “Air conditioning was a most important invention for us. . . by making development possible in the tropics. Without AC you can work only in the cool early-morning hours or at dust. . . . install{ing] AC . . . was key to public efficiency.
We see the same in the US, where the hot South was traditionally less developed both culturally and economically prior to widespread use of AC. Factories, warehouses, farm tractors and construction equipment are air conditioned for worker safety and efficiency. AC has wiped out sweatshops. Likewise, the relative inaccessibility of the Appalachian Mountain region has left it culturally isolated and impoverished.
I did notice that he didn’t discuss Ocean-going civilizations, such as the Phoenicians. Nor does he talk much about the Middle Eastern River civilizations. He admits the pattern is weaker in Asia, which again has river civilizations in hot climates and Less inhabitable mountains in the interior.
Take a look at the full article and and his maps comparing topography and population distribution.
https://tomaspueyo.medium.com/why-warm-countries-are-poorer-933e28e6427d
Projections RE: Global migration
“Migration is a defining global force. Its future paths could reshape economies, policies, and societies in very different ways depending on how governments, markets, and communities respond. While I recognize that this can be a divisive topic, At Shaping Tomorrow, we aim to inform the debate by exploring scenarios across multiple time horizons.
Migration Futures: Scenarios for the Next 5, 10, and 15 Years
Looking ahead, each time horizon brings its own mix of opportunities and challenges.
Policy shifts
5 years: Bilateral and regional deals may improve visible control of migration flows. If fragmented, the deals could create inconsistent enforcement and friction (The Conversation).
10 years: Stronger regional frameworks may emerge, offering predictability. Alternatively, diverging national priorities may stall cooperation amongst nations.
15 years: Global norms could underpin fair, managed mobility. If tensions rise, policies may remain reactive and uneven.
Economic impacts
5 years: Migrants could help ease labor shortages and support growth. Sudden inflows may strain housing, healthcare, and education systems.
10 years: Well-managed migration might boost productivity, innovation, and demographic resilience. Poorly managed, it could fuel inequality and polarization (DebExpert).
15 years: Mobile talent may be a cornerstone of thriving economies. Conversely, skills gaps could widen between regions attracting migrants and those losing them.
Climate pressures
5 years: Extreme weather may increase displacement. Anticipatory investment could help reduce forced migration (Climate Cosmos).
10 years: Adaptation strategies could channel climate-driven migration into sustainable development. Without planning, humanitarian crises could grow.
15 years: International cooperation may establish new frameworks for climate mobility. If absent, large-scale displacement could destabilize fragile states.
Local realities
Cities are already absorbing large inflows of people. Such experiences may provide positive lessons in integration or highlight the risks of overstretched resources.
The bottom line
Migration will remain both a challenge and an opportunity. Exploring multiple scenarios, positive and negative, can help leaders prepare for the future more effectively.”