One of the driving forces in our current world situation is migration. Europe and the US, as primary destinations, are dealing with wholesale pressure from migrants or refugees fleeing or leaving areas that are affected by a large range of issues. Over the course of this program year (October, 2025 to May 2026), we will look at a range of topics that affect the size and effect of those migration pressures:
1. Population Growth –
2. Water – Kranstover
3. Natural Resources – Katzka
4. Arable and/or habitable land –
5. Aging – Rousseau
6. Climate Change –
7. Wrap Up Discussion – Katzka facilitatorThere will be a blog post for each topic. As you have ideas or references to share, please add a comment under the appropriate topic.
Please note, your first post will require approval to ensure we’re not troubled by spammers or AI Bots. Don’t worry if it doesn’t show up immediately. After your first post is approved, you will be able to post comments without interference.
Apparently my earlier effort to post on my iPad was unsuccessful. I will try to recreate the earlier message.
First of all, thank you to Barbara for getting this off the ground.
Secondly, I wanted to remind that I had contacted a dentist to do a talk on the future of Dentistry and he has agreed though the date has been left as early 2026.
Thirdly, I think we can combine some the topics listed above. If George is successful in getting a migration presenter on board, that may be the best way to start the year in October. Though I think the critical topic is population growth because it enters into every one of the other areas, I’m not convinced we can spend an hour and a half usefully just discussing that theme.
Looking for more input!
John
Thanks Barbara for getting the ball rolling. I had mentioned earlier that I had approached my dentist about a talk on the future of dentistry… I had cause to see him recently and he is enthusiastic about the idea. Can we make room for him? I also think we can combine some of our topics into one session.
To World Future Society Planning Committee:
Following Barbara Brown’s suggestion, posted here is a comment to learn how the blog works. The comment is long in order to get an idea how this blog formats and otherwise handles text. The content is my outline prepared for the February 26 radio show about Puerto Rico. (riverwestradio.com, “It is what it is”, Carol Hale, Hostess).
Ideas Selected for a Riverwest Radio Discussion about Puerto Rico in 2025
Version: Thursday, June 26, 2025, 01:49 a.m.
BACKGROUND. This topic was proposed by the host, Carol Hale. She began by
mentioning the public debt of Puerto Rico. This 30 minute radio
discussion is intended to overview the problems faced by Puerto Rico and
its people at this time in history. It is necessary to ask “How did
Puerto Rico get to where it is today?” This implies presenting a brief
overview of the history of Puerto Rico. The history will bring us to
1898 when the United States took possession of the island from Spain.
That began the period when the political and economic affairs of Puerto
Rico came under the United States government. In 2016, Congress passed
the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act.
PROMESA was created in response to Puerto Rico’s crushing public debt
and the lack of alternatives for Puerto Rico to service or restructure
that debt. This Act was signed into law by President Barack Obama on
June 30, 2016. The Act created a seven-member oversight board which was
an entity within the territorial government of Puerto Rico.
That statement is a summary. Let us expand this by looking at five
topics which bring us to where Puerto Rico is in the year 2025.
OUTLINE
I. Early History
A. Settlement patterns
B. Columbus
C. Decline of indigenous people
D. Religion
E. Exploitation
II. Geography
A. Antilles
B. Portuguese
C. Years of Exploration
D. Pirates
E. Spain
III. Spanish-American War of 1898
A. Autonomous Government 1898
B. Spanish American War 1898
C. Foraker Act of 1900
D. Jones Act of 1917
E. Puerto Rico’s Constitution 1952
F. U.S. Colony
IV. Current status of Puerto Rico
A. Oversight
B. Public Debt
C. Hurricanes
D. Exploitation by corporate interests
E. PROMESA
F. Austerity measures
G. Financial Oversight & Management Board
H. Minerals
I. Manufacturing
V. The issues of territorial sovereignty
A. Sovereignty in European countries
B. Colonial Extraction
C. Territorial Sovereignty
D. A Path into the Future
Title: PUERTO RICO IN 2025
Author: Michael E. Zeidler
INTRODUCTION
I. Early History
A. The first human settlement on the island of Puerto Rico was
people from the Orinoco region of South America. Archeologists
trace the settlement to 4000 years ago. The Orinico River is
in Venezuela.
B. The Ortoiroid people were displaced by Saladoid people who moved
into Puerto Rico about 300 BC. Between the seventh and eleventh
centuries the Taino culture developed and became dominant.
Archeological evidence shows that the immigrating people came
to Puerto Rico from the path of islands in the Lesser Antilles.
(Grenada, St Lucia, Martinque, Dominica, Antigua, St Kitts,
Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands)
C. In 1493 Christopher Columbus arrived in San Juan. This was his
second voyage to the New World. He had 17 ships and more than
1200 soldiers, maybe 1500. He named the island San Juan Bautista
in honor of Saint John the Baptist.
D. The Europeans brought infectious diseases that became a major
reason for the decline in population of the Taino culture. The
Spanish settlers were responsible for exploiting the Taino
which further weaken their people during the 16th century.
The Taino culture was brought to extinction during the 50
years following the arrival of Columbus.
E. Slaves were brought to Puerto Rico after the decline of the
Taino people.
F. Colonization was participated in by Pope Julius II who realized
the opportunity to expand the influence of the church.
G. Seeking wealth from Puerto, European powers attempted to take
away the island from Spain. The Spanish build a fort at San
Juan is response. This is on a peninsula that enclosed a bay.
II. Geography
A. The Greater Antilles is three islands: Cuba, Haiti & Dominican
Republic, and Puerto Rico.
B. The Lesser Antilles refers to the smaller islands arcing through
the ocean all the way to Venezuela. These islands form a boundary
that separates the Atlantic Ocean from the Gulf of Mexico.
C. In 1593 Portuguese soldiers were sent to San Juan by Phillip II
to build the San Felipe del Morro fortress. Today, many Puerto
Ricans have the surnames of those soldiers. (Acosta, Avila,
Baveto, Campos, Camacho, Matos, Montalvo, Pereira, Silva, Velez)
D. The 16th and 17th Century were years of exploration by Europeans.
The Spanish, Portuguese, French, English, and Dutch divided up
the islands after many skirmishes. The Spaniards held control
of the Greater Antilles. The effect of the skirmishes is seen in
placenames: Martinique (France), Guadeloupe (France), Montserrat
(UK), Netherlands Antilles (Netherlands), Virgin Islands (US),
British Virgin Islands (UK).
E. The location of Puerto Rice made the island a convenient entry
point for those from Europe heading for Cuba, Mexico, Central
America, and northern South America.
F. The 16th and 17th Centuries were noted for threats from pirates.
Pirates came from three European countries: French corsairs,
Dutch free booters, English privateers. They attacked ships and
attempted to capture San Juan. Pirates used the Virgin Islands
and other Caribbean locations as staging points for attacks.
G. The Spaniards governed Puerto Rico for 405 years. (1493 – 1898)
DISCUSSION
III. Spanish-American War of 1898
A. The political tumult between Spain and Puerto Rico resulted in
the creation of an autonomous government on July 17, 1898. This
was a time of war. In April 1898 the Spanish-American war
began. The United States goal was to seize Cuba, Puerto Rico
the Philippines, and Guam. At the end of August 1898, Puerto
Rico was under United States control.
B. In 1898, during the Spanish-American War, the United States got
possession of Puerto Rico. The Treaty of Paris was signed on
December 10, 1898. The U.S. installed a military government
in Puerto Rico.
C. Foraker Act of 1900 established a civil government in Puerto
Rico. The U.S. Supreme Court affirmed that the Constitution of
the U.S. applied to the territory of Puerto Rico. The island
was referred to as an acquired country.
D. The Jones Act of 1917 made Puerto Ricans citizens of the
United States.
E. Puerto Rico’s Constitution was approved by Congress and Puerto
Rican voters in 1952. Puerto Ricans cannot vote for President,
Senators, or Representatives.
F. Migration to the 48 states became one way Puerto Ricans could
advance their lives. Many people moved to Florida and New York.
G. The United States has governed the Commonwealth of Puerto
Rico from 1898 through 2025.
IV. Current status of Puerto Rico
A. It is the goal here to overview the economic and political
issues of the island.
B. In November 2023, there appeared an article about a leading case
in constitutional interpretation published in the Harvard Law
Review. “Financial Oversight and Management Board for Puerto
Rico v. Centro de Periodismo Investigativo, Inc.” This paper
provides an explanation of issues related to territorial
sovereignty for Puerto Rico. It provides a legal explanation
of the current problems in the Puerto Rican economy.
C. The first problem mentioned is the large public debt. The Public
Debt was said to have been $72,000,000,000 in 2023.
D. The second problem was the lasting damage from natural disasters.
Discriminatory restrictions on federal aid were suggested as
contributing to the magnitude of this problem.
E. Hurricane Irma, a category 5 storm, passed north of the island on
September 5, 2017 and left 1 million citizens without power.
This resulted in a large migration off the island. Recent
migration data indicates there has been some return migration
since the hurricane. The attractions are a vibrant culture,
scenic landscapes, financial incentives, and favorable climate.
E. Puerto Rico is further described as being vulnerable to corporate
interests and exploitation.
F. Austerity measures have been imposed on the people.
G. PROMESA: Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic
Stability Act. The oversight board is not forthcoming about the
decisions made by the board.
H. Financial Oversight & Management Board is a seven member Board.
I. U.S. House has a resident commissioner representing Puerto Rico.
He is focused on economic development, equity in federal
programs, and infrastructure rebuilding. Pablo Jose Hernandez
Rivera (Popular Democratic Party).
J. Puerto Rico has limited mineral resources. These are non-fuel
resources, The island has deposits of gold, copper, molybdenum,
silver, silica, clay, and gravel. (No oil or coal)
K. While large copper deposits exist in the mountains, they are
not currently mined due to environmental concerns. Crushed stone
and Portland cement are leading non-fuel commodities.
L. The main drivers of Puerto Rico’s economy are manufacturing,
which primarily includes pharmaceutical, textiles,
petro-chemicals, and electronics; followed by the service
industry, notably finance, insurance, real estate, and tourism.
CONCLUSION
V. The Issues of Territorial Sovereignty
A. Puerto Rican history is different than the history of European
countries. Sovereignty in Europe evolved from political events
and wars. In Puerto Rico sovereignty was imposed on the people
by Europeans for purposes desired by Europeans.
B. For centuries Puerto Rico was subjected to colonial extraction
of the many forms of wealth
C. Territorial sovereignty refers to a state’s exclusive right to
govern its territory without external interference.
D. There appears to be no immediate route for Puerto Rico to
achieve the kind of sovereignty that citizens talk about.
E. The best current strategy toward achieving territorial
sovereignty is for the Commonwealth to put great effort into
educating their 3,200,000 people in ways that increase their
chance of attaining statehood or self-governance as a small
island nation.
F. The migration of Puerto Ricans to the 50 states is expected
to continue. Most of these people are going to Florida, New
York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut,
Texas, California, Illinois, Wisconsin.